FPL Brain Early Look for GW8

Free-Hitting This Week?

🧤 Goalkeeper

• Raya (Arsenal vs Fulham)

  • Fulham’s xG is 23% below the league average, so their attack poses minimal threat.

  • Their xGC is 2% above average, meaning Arsenal should dominate, keeping pressure off Raya and boosting clean-sheet odds.

🛡️ Defenders

• Chalobah (Chelsea vs Nott’m Forest)

  • Forest’s xGC is 36% above the league average, a great matchup for defenders with attacking threat.

  • Strong defensive output (9.75/90) with attacking upside (xGI 0.24).

  • Forest’s xG is 6% above average, a minor risk but manageable given Chelsea’s control.

• J. Timber (Arsenal vs Fulham)

  • xGI 0.40/90 is excellent for a defender.

  • Fulham’s xG is 23% below average, making this a top clean-sheet fixture.

  • Slightly weak opponent defense (xGC +2% vs. average) allows Timber to stay advanced.

• Struijk (Leeds vs Burnley)

  • Burnley’s xG is 19% below average, suggesting a strong chance of a clean sheet.

  • Burnley’s xGC is 47% above average, so Leeds will spend much of the match attacking.

  • High defensive work rate (8.14/90) gives a solid floor.

⚙️ Midfielders

• Enzo (Chelsea vs Nott’m Forest)

  • xGI 0.62/90 with a 36% above-average xGC opponent makes this a standout matchup.

  • Forest’s xG is 6% above average, but Chelsea should still control the game.

• M. Salah (Liverpool vs Man Utd)

  • Consistent xGI 0.42/90 in a fixture where United’s xGC is 11% above the league average — slightly better-than-neutral for attackers.

  • United’s xG is 26% above average, meaning an open game that suits Salah’s style.

• Semenyo (Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace)

  • xGI 0.57/90 against a defense just 2% below average in xGC — close to neutral.

  • Palace’s xG is 31% above average, suggesting an end-to-end match that could open up space for attacking returns.

• Schade (Brentford vs West Ham)

  • xGI 0.33/90 with West Ham’s xGC 25% above the league average makes this a strong fixture for attacking players.

  • West Ham’s xG is 31% below average, minimizing defensive exposure.

• Ndiaye (Everton vs Man City)

  • Decent xGI 0.49/90, but City’s xGC is 15% below average, one of the toughest matchups in the league.

  • City’s xG is 73% above average, so Everton will spend most of the game defending — not ideal for returns.

⚽ Forwards

• Haaland (Man City vs Everton)

  • xGI 1.25/90, the highest in the league.

  • Everton’s xGC is 10% above average, a favorable defensive matchup.

  • Everton’s xG is 24% above average, which could create a high-tempo game where Haaland thrives.

• Thiago (Brentford vs West Ham)

  • xGI 0.47/90 with West Ham’s xGC 25% above average — clear attacking upside.

  • West Ham’s xG is 31% below average, meaning Brentford should dominate possession.

✅ Summary:

• High-upside attackers: Haaland, Enzo, Salah, Timber, Thiago

• Strong defensive foundations: Raya, Timber, Struijk

• Balanced differential: Chalobah — strong two-way potential vs. a weak Forest defense (+36% xGC vs. average)

Overall Best and Differential Picks for Next 3 Gameweeks